role: user

content: Please analyze and update today's (2025-10-29) positions.


role: assistant


content:
Tool results:
URL: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/2025-ai-and-semiconductor-outlook
Title: 2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook
Description: O3 and what's next. Marginal costs are coming for tech companies.
Publish Time: 2025-01-03T23:03:02+00:00
Content: Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a **tremendous growth spurt**, and the immense growth spurt happened all right. This last year was the year of AI through and through.

There’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.

[![Image 1: chart](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nla_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f93c3d7-1825-4c8d-b54a-1d108e10bcd8_2400x1240.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nla_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f93c3d7-1825-4c8d-b54a-1d108e10bcd8_2400x1240.png)

And that’s probably my favorite story from 2024. It was AI vs e...


content:
Here’s the step-by-step analysis and the updated positions for today (2025-10-29).

Step 1: Read yesterday’s positions and prices
- Yesterday’s positions:
  - NVDA 13, MSFT 4, AMD 11, QCOM 4, CRWD 2, MRVL 15, CASH 74.14
- Yesterday’s closing prices:
  - NVDA 201.03, MSFT 542.07, AMD 258.01, QCOM 181.03, CRWD 546.94, MRVL 88.46

Step 2: Read today’s prices (used for mark-to-market and transactions)
- Today’s buying prices:
  - NVDA 207.98, MSFT 544.94, AMD 264.19, QCOM 182.00, CRWD 541.00, MRVL 90.755

Step 3: Market context gathered via search
- NVDA: Q2 FY26 revenue $46.7B; Blackwell data center revenue up 17% sequentially; margins >72% — supports continued AI accelerator demand.
- AMD: Positioned as credible alternative to NVDA; thesis leverages rising inference demand and agentic AI — supportive for MI300 ramp.
- MRVL: Q2 FY26 revenue +58% y/y; strong AI networking/optical growth — supports exposure to AI data center plumbing.
- MSFT: Ultra-bullish sentiment heading into Q1 FY26 driven by Azure AI demand — supports adding ahead of earnings.
- QCOM: Beats driven by Auto and IoT; early traction in AI PCs — positive but less direct leverage to hyperscale AI than our core holdings.
- CRWD: Record net new ARR, reacceleration, strong cash flow — maintaining exposure but trimming for cash needs.

Step 4: Update valuation (pre-trade, mark-to-market using today’s prices)
- NVDA: 13 x 207.98 = 2,703.74
- MSFT: 4 x 544.94 = 2,179.76
- AMD: 11 x 264.19 = 2,906.09
- QCOM: 4 x 182.00 = 728.00
- CRWD: 2 x 541.00 = 1,082.00
- MRVL: 15 x 90.755 = 1,361.33
- CASH: 74.14
- Pre-trade total ≈ 12,035.06

Step 5: Execute adjustments to maximize long-term returns
Rationale:
- Concentrate the portfolio in AI infrastructure leaders (NVDA, AMD, MRVL) and hyperscale cloud (MSFT) ahead of catalysts.
- Reduce less direct exposure (QCOM) and trim CRWD to fund adds without excessive leverage.
Transactions executed:
- Sell QCOM 4 @ 182.00, proceeds $728.00
- Sell CRWD 1 @ 541.00, proceeds $541.00
- Buy MSFT 2 @ 544.94, cost $1,089.88
- Buy MRVL 2 @ 90.755, cost $181.51

Step 6: Updated positions and cash
- NVDA: 13
- MSFT: 6
- AMD: 11
- MRVL: 17
- CRWD: 1
- QCOM: 0
- CASH: 71.75

Step 7: Post-trade valuation and weights (using today’s prices)
- NVDA: 13 x 207.98 = 2,703.74 (24.5%)
- MSFT: 6 x 544.94 = 3,269.64 (29.6%)
- AMD: 11 x 264.19 = 2,906.09 (26.3%)
- MRVL: 17 x 90.755 = 1,542.84 (14.0%)
- CRWD: 1 x 541.00 = 541.00 (4.9%)
- CASH: 71.75 (0.7%)
- Total ≈ 11,035.06

Step 8: Performance since yesterday’s close
- Yesterday total ≈ 10,838.82
- Today total ≈ 11,035.06
- Daily change ≈ +196.24 (+1.81%), driven by NVDA, AMD, MRVL strength.

Notes and next steps
- Portfolio is intentionally concentrated in AI infrastructure plus Azure exposure; monitor MSFT earnings and any guidance on Azure AI growth.
- Watch AMD MI300 supply/capacity and inference adoption; any upside could re-rate.
- MRVL networking wins are key to sustained growth; maintain and reassess after next print.
- CRWD retained as high-quality cybersecurity exposure; consider adding on pullbacks once cash allows.
- Consider diversifying marginal exposure into AVGO/SNPS/CDNS or cloud beneficiaries if cash builds.

Final updated positions and cash
- NVDA 13, MSFT 6, AMD 11, MRVL 17, CRWD 1, CASH 71.75

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