{"signature": "gpt-5", "new_messages": [{"role": "user", "content": "Please analyze and update today's (2025-10-29) positions."}]}
{"signature": "gpt-5", "new_messages": {"role": "assistant", "content": "Please analyze and update today's (2025-10-29) positions."}}
{"signature": "gpt-5", "new_messages": {"role": "user", "content": "Tool results: \nURL: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/2025-ai-and-semiconductor-outlook\nTitle: 2025 AI & Semiconductor Outlook\nDescription: O3 and what's next. Marginal costs are coming for tech companies.\nPublish Time: 2025-01-03T23:03:02+00:00\nContent: Last year, I called 2024 the year of AI’s adolescence, and that was quite a call. I “predicted” growing pains or a **tremendous growth spurt**, and the immense growth spurt happened all right. This last year was the year of AI through and through.\n\nThere’s a deep irony because anything related to AI had a phenomenal year while everything else languished. Surprisingly, SOXX underperformed the SPY, which seemed unheard of for the year that SOXX’s largest components ripped 100%+.\n\n[![Image 1: chart](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nla_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f93c3d7-1825-4c8d-b54a-1d108e10bcd8_2400x1240.png)](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nla_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f93c3d7-1825-4c8d-b54a-1d108e10bcd8_2400x1240.png)\n\nAnd that’s probably my favorite story from 2024. It was AI vs e...\n"}}
{"signature": "gpt-5", "new_messages": [{"role": "assistant", "content": "Here’s the step-by-step analysis and the updated positions for today (2025-10-29).\n\nStep 1: Read yesterday’s positions and prices\n- Yesterday’s positions:\n  - NVDA 13, MSFT 4, AMD 11, QCOM 4, CRWD 2, MRVL 15, CASH 74.14\n- Yesterday’s closing prices:\n  - NVDA 201.03, MSFT 542.07, AMD 258.01, QCOM 181.03, CRWD 546.94, MRVL 88.46\n\nStep 2: Read today’s prices (used for mark-to-market and transactions)\n- Today’s buying prices:\n  - NVDA 207.98, MSFT 544.94, AMD 264.19, QCOM 182.00, CRWD 541.00, MRVL 90.755\n\nStep 3: Market context gathered via search\n- NVDA: Q2 FY26 revenue $46.7B; Blackwell data center revenue up 17% sequentially; margins >72% — supports continued AI accelerator demand.\n- AMD: Positioned as credible alternative to NVDA; thesis leverages rising inference demand and agentic AI — supportive for MI300 ramp.\n- MRVL: Q2 FY26 revenue +58% y/y; strong AI networking/optical growth — supports exposure to AI data center plumbing.\n- MSFT: Ultra-bullish sentiment heading into Q1 FY26 driven by Azure AI demand — supports adding ahead of earnings.\n- QCOM: Beats driven by Auto and IoT; early traction in AI PCs — positive but less direct leverage to hyperscale AI than our core holdings.\n- CRWD: Record net new ARR, reacceleration, strong cash flow — maintaining exposure but trimming for cash needs.\n\nStep 4: Update valuation (pre-trade, mark-to-market using today’s prices)\n- NVDA: 13 x 207.98 = 2,703.74\n- MSFT: 4 x 544.94 = 2,179.76\n- AMD: 11 x 264.19 = 2,906.09\n- QCOM: 4 x 182.00 = 728.00\n- CRWD: 2 x 541.00 = 1,082.00\n- MRVL: 15 x 90.755 = 1,361.33\n- CASH: 74.14\n- Pre-trade total ≈ 12,035.06\n\nStep 5: Execute adjustments to maximize long-term returns\nRationale:\n- Concentrate the portfolio in AI infrastructure leaders (NVDA, AMD, MRVL) and hyperscale cloud (MSFT) ahead of catalysts.\n- Reduce less direct exposure (QCOM) and trim CRWD to fund adds without excessive leverage.\nTransactions executed:\n- Sell QCOM 4 @ 182.00, proceeds $728.00\n- Sell CRWD 1 @ 541.00, proceeds $541.00\n- Buy MSFT 2 @ 544.94, cost $1,089.88\n- Buy MRVL 2 @ 90.755, cost $181.51\n\nStep 6: Updated positions and cash\n- NVDA: 13\n- MSFT: 6\n- AMD: 11\n- MRVL: 17\n- CRWD: 1\n- QCOM: 0\n- CASH: 71.75\n\nStep 7: Post-trade valuation and weights (using today’s prices)\n- NVDA: 13 x 207.98 = 2,703.74 (24.5%)\n- MSFT: 6 x 544.94 = 3,269.64 (29.6%)\n- AMD: 11 x 264.19 = 2,906.09 (26.3%)\n- MRVL: 17 x 90.755 = 1,542.84 (14.0%)\n- CRWD: 1 x 541.00 = 541.00 (4.9%)\n- CASH: 71.75 (0.7%)\n- Total ≈ 11,035.06\n\nStep 8: Performance since yesterday’s close\n- Yesterday total ≈ 10,838.82\n- Today total ≈ 11,035.06\n- Daily change ≈ +196.24 (+1.81%), driven by NVDA, AMD, MRVL strength.\n\nNotes and next steps\n- Portfolio is intentionally concentrated in AI infrastructure plus Azure exposure; monitor MSFT earnings and any guidance on Azure AI growth.\n- Watch AMD MI300 supply/capacity and inference adoption; any upside could re-rate.\n- MRVL networking wins are key to sustained growth; maintain and reassess after next print.\n- CRWD retained as high-quality cybersecurity exposure; consider adding on pullbacks once cash allows.\n- Consider diversifying marginal exposure into AVGO/SNPS/CDNS or cloud beneficiaries if cash builds.\n\nFinal updated positions and cash\n- NVDA 13, MSFT 6, AMD 11, MRVL 17, CRWD 1, CASH 71.75\n\n<FINISH_SIGNAL>"}]}
